Analysing Quang Hai and Hoang Duc’s performance at the AFF Cup 2020
(A bit of pre-note before the article: So, this article started out as a Twitter thread, which you can still find down below, where I tried to prove that Nguyen Quang Hai’s output at the AFF Cup 2020 had gone up since the Asian Cup 2019, if not, reaching his best since the 2018 version of the tournament.
And someone from a Vietnamese football-related page that I am working with had a similar idea, and now I ended up with a full, slightly data-heavy, article analysing Quang Hai’s performance. I have also added some quick analysis on Nguyen Hoang Duc, another Vietnam midfielder in this article as well. I hope you will enjoy it!)
(If you are a Vietnamese, or know Vietnamese, and would love to read my original article in Vietnamese, you can find it here: https://www.facebook.com/1stfootballmagazine/posts/666039951442975)
(All vizzes in this article are all homemade using Excel, Python and Matplotlib, with the data from Opta and Instat)
Putting aside the frustration of not being able to defend the AFF Championship title, it can be said that this tournament had been a huge success for Nguyen Quang Hai and Nguyen Hoang Duc, specifically. For Hoang Duc, there has been numerous occasions where the Vietnamese central midfielder received praises from local and continental news outlets. Manager Park Hang-seo definitely has helped him reached his best during the third round of the Asian World Cup Qualifiers, and it does not come as a surprise that he stole the spotlight once more in Singapore.
But for Quang Hai, this tournament marked a transition in his style of play as Park tried to use him as a central midfielder in a two-men pairing with Hoang Duc, instead of using him in his preferred right-wing role in previous tournaments. Quang Hai still left his mark in Singapore, with him being the second-best player in the tournament in terms of chances created with 15 (currently below Singapore’s Shahdan Sulaiman, who created 19 chances up to before the tournament’s final). So, besides the casual stats from the AFF Cup’s website, what can the more detailed stats tell us about their performances during this tournament?
Quang Hai is returning to his best at the AFF Cup 2020
In the last 3 years, Vietnam has had the chance to play against the continent’s bests, especially in competitions such as the Asian Cup 2019 and the third round of the Asian World Cup Qualifiers. And besides, it is worth notice that this is the first time that many of these players got to play against players who are much better tactically and technically than them. While Park has tried his best to support the players tactical-wise, it does not come as a surprise that some of the players’ output have been reducing, and one of them is Quang Hai.
At the AFF Cup 2018, Quang Hai’s chances conversion rate was still pretty good, as he managed to convert 0.36 of his total 0.6 chances per 90 minutes. But during later tournaments, his ability to convert chances decreased significantly. One specific example comes from the Asian Cup 2019, where he had 0.71 chances, but could only convert 0.18 per 90s, the second-lowest across all five tournaments.
Furthermore, Quang Hai’s expected goals ratio during both World Cup Qualifiers and the Asian Cup are all below 0.2 xG per 90s. Along with none of his xG per shot across all five tournaments reached 0.1 xG per 90s, the question that needs to be raised here is whether Quang Hai is facing problem(s) about his ability to finish the chances that he has.
For now, let’s set aside that question and look at Quang Hai’s stats from the AFF Cup 2020. Hanoi FC’s midfielder had 1.3 chances, and managed to convert 0,37 of them per 90s. It is clear that his numbers are better than previous tournaments, and it is also his best comparing to the remaining four tournaments. Furthermore, he also made 1.49 shots on target per 90s, also the highest number across all five tournaments.
(Let me stop you here for a bit. You might have noticed the constant and repeated use of the phrase ‘per 90s’ when I mentioned a stat from a viz above. Why do I use per 90s stats, and not per match, or even, the total stats, if you may ask? If you already know the reason why, then please, continue with the article. But if you don’t, allow the past me to explain why.
What I have said above is still true, and probably won’t change, at least until the Twitter analytics community, or a data company, comes up with a new way of measuring and comparing a player’s individual data, which I believe might be done in the near future. So this claim might be true in 2021, but if you are reading this in 2022, or even the years after, please notify me to yell at me that this is not true anymore. Thank you for stopping to hear my explanation, now, please continue with the article.)
It is clear that Quang Hai had tried to create chances for himself, or convert the chances that his teammates created for him. His goals and expected goals per 90s are at a decent rate, but the question from above now has another aspect that we need to answer, could Quang Hai have scored more goals with the chances that he had? The answer might surprise you. ([Foreshadowing]: No, it won’t).
(If you don’t want to read the explanations, I will spare you a moment. No, he wouldn’t. TL;DR: Most of his shots are taken outside of the penalty box and had a low xG rate, so the probably of those chances being turned into goals are less than 10% for each shot. Please, continue with the remaining parts of the article.)
If we take into account the whole tournament, Quang Hai had made the second-most shots with a total of 18 shots, only behind Thailand’s Teerasil Dangda, at least until the final is played. But, in those 18 shots, only 5 of them managed to find the target. Meanwhile, the Vietnamese midfielder had 6 shots blocked and 6 missed the target, taking up a whopping total of 66.7% of his total number of shots.
One of the reasons for why Quang Hai’s chances conversion was not good during the tournament is he made most of his shots from outside the penalty box. As the shot map above has shown, Hanoi FC’s midfielder only made 5 shots inside the penalty area, including 2 goals, 1 that got blocked, and 2 off target. On the other hand, all of his shots from outside of the box (or yet, even include his shots from inside the 16-yard box) are all under 0.1 xG, indicating that the shots that he made during the tournament had under 10% chance of being turned into goals.
Against Indonesia and Malaysia, Quang Hai was still used as a right winger in Park’s 3–4–3 system. But since the match against Cambodia, Park moved him into a more central role alongside Hoang Duc at the centre of the field. This might be a reason for why Quang Hai did not have many opportunities to enter the box and convert his chances from inside the area.
As for his chance creation output, Quang Hai’s stats for this tournament once again came out as the best across all five tournaments. The number of chances he created was 1.86, while his key passes reached 2 all per 90s. Those stats indicate Quang Hai’s playmaking role and his transition from the right-hand side into the central area of the pitch, while still maintaining his role.
At the opposite end, his number of crosses decreased steadily throughout the five tournaments listed in the viz, from 0.83 crosses at the AFF Cup 2018 to bouncing back to 0.37 crosses per 90s at this year’s tournament. Quang Hai also made less dribbles during this tournament, with only 2 dribbles per 90s, the second-least and above his 1.76 dribbles per 90s at the Asian Cup 2019. This also coincides with the fact that he is transitioning from a natural winger who likes to have and dribble with the ball, to a playmaker who favours creating chances for his teammates.
From his touch map at this year’s AFF Cup, it can be noticed his preference of only dribble with the ball when he had the ball inside the final third, more specifically, inside zone 14 and the right half-space, indicating by most of the yellow dots in the area. Furthermore, Quang Hai also made more passes inside the central and right half space area besides from his usual preference of moving out to the right wing.
In terms of his defensive output, there is definitely a decrease in his ability to support the team’s defence. During the AFF Cup 2020, he only made 4.1 defensive challenges per 90s, the second-lowest and is on par with his record at the Asian Cup 2019. He also made less tackles, falling from 4 tackles during the tournament two years ago, to a surprisingly 2.2 tackles per 90s this tournament.
While he did not actively defend during the Asian Cup 2019, he tried to be proactive and intercept passes from the opposition. This was shown through his 3.5 interceptions per 90s, where he also reached his peak and then fell drastically from there.
There might be a case to argue that Quang Hai is trying to be smarter with his defensive challenges, which is definitely true. Comparing his defensive stats from the AFF Cup 2018 to the 2020 edition, he definitely made more defensive challenges and tackles in 2018 (5.5 and 4 per 90s respectively), but the number of successful challenges and tackles are very similar to his record in 2021 (2.05 vs 2.035 and 1.276 vs 1.28 per 90s respectively). His volume definitely decreased, but his efficiency is growing from time to time and across tournaments.
While Quang Hai had a great performance in the role of the team’s advanced playmaker, and did manage to create plenty of chances for his teammates, the main problem lies at the prolificacy of the attackers in the national team. They struggled to make good runs off the ball or, even runs into spaces where Quang Hai and Hoang Duc can pass the ball to them, and this limited both players’ ability to create chances from the central of the pitch.
Meanwhile, Quang Hai himself also faced a slight problem as he could not get into positions where he would have better opportunities to score. But given that Vietnam have been playing against teams who set up in a low block during the AFF Cup 2020, and against better teams who forced Vietnam to sit back during the third round of the Asian World Cup Qualifiers, this would not come as a huge surprise.
Hoang Duc — The new Vietnam’s midfield sensation
Since the start of the third round World Cup Qualifiers, there has been many occasions where Hoang Duc received compliments from pundits and newspapers from both inside and outside of Vietnam for his performances. And he definitely deserved the praises that are coming his way, as he has tried to improve since the first time manager Park Hang-seo gave him the chance in the national team.
Up to before the final of the tournament, Hoang Duc made the most passes in the tournament with 337 passes in total, more than second-placed Theerathon Bunmathan 50 passes. He also created 9 chances throughout the tournament, the third-best Vietnamese player behind Quang Hai with 15 and Xuan Truong with 11 chances created.
From Hoang Duc’s pass map below for this tournament (which looks like a bunch of spider webs being sewed with each other), we can still vaguely make out Hoang Duc’s preference of making progressive passes whenever possible. He has a decent number of passes into the opposition’s half and final third (which I should have calculated, will update this part if I do calculate this in the future), while also managed to successfully make some passes with decent length. This explains why most of Vietnam’s attacks would always be started or had the involvement of Hoang Duc.
The only aspect that he can improve here is his ability to pass into the 16-yard box, as most of his passes into the box are all ended unsuccessfully. But he did have two assists from passes into such area, which is also a slightly promising sign.
Take Vietnam’s passing network against Indonesia as an example to see how much influence Hoang Duc has in the current team. Besides from the connections made in between the five defenders, Hoang Duc’s connections with other players in the team are brighter than any other players’ connections.
Hoang Duc’s pass map from the same match also shows something similar to the passing network above. He made most of his passes from near the central circle, more to the left-hand side, which is also near his average position with the ball. Viettel’s midfielder could also drop deep or moved to the wings to receive the ball, then progress the play by passing the ball forward.
These vizzes showed how important Hoang Duc is to Vietnam’s offensive play as he acts as a connector between the three centre-backs and the attackers above through his progressive passes. His offensive contribution might not be as significant as Quang Hai’s, Xuan Truong’s or Tan Tai’s, but there is no doubt that he plays an integral part in how Park wants his side to play.
Another aspect of Hoang Duc that I really admired from him is his willingness to participate in a defensive duel. He is willing to win the ball anywhere on the pitch, especially at the central of the pitch and inside both half spaces.
If you have watched both of Vietnam’s matches against Thailand (which, I believe, is still available on the AFF Cup’s YouTube channel), you will notice some of the occasions where Hoang Duc managed to hold off the pressure from the Thai players to keep his balance and continue moving with the ball. If other Vietnamese players had the ball in a similar situation, either they would attempt to draw a foul, or they would lose the ball. But not Hoang Duc, he is built with a different mentality.
Conclusion
While Vietnam have been de-throned, but to some of Vietnam players, including Quang Hai and Hoang Duc, this is the tournament that they can be proud. Through the numbers and vizzes from above, hopefully, I have managed to explain why both players had a great tournament individually for the national team. With both players finding their best or maintaining their form once more, hopefully, they can continue to spearhead the national team in the upcoming World Cup Qualifiers campaign.
